US November Oil Production Drops – Peak Oil Barrel
Ovi
02/08/2026
By Ovi
All of the Crude plus Condensate (C + C) production data for the US state charts comes from the EIA's Petroleum Supply monthly PSM which provides updated production information up to November 2025.
 U.S. November oil production decreased by 82 kb/d to 13,782 kb/d, The largest decrease came from the GOM, 76 kb/d. December production is expected to rise by 54 kb/d to 13,836 kb/d according to the January STEO.
The dark blue graph, taken from the January 2025 STEO, is the U.S. oil production forecast from December 2025 to December 2027. Output for December 2027 is expected to drop to 13,158 kb/d. From December 2025 to December 2027 U.S. oil production is expected to drop by 678 kb/d.
Note the almost flat production in the Onshore L48 from July 2025 to November 2025, 11,436 kb/d to 11,398 kb/d, respectively, red/blue graph.
US oil production will peak between October 2025 and December 2025. October has a chance. Onshore L48 almost guaranteed to have peaked in August.
The light blue graph is the STEO’s forecast for the Onshore L48 output to December 2027. From November 2025 to December 2027 production is expected to decrease by 605 kb/d to 10,793 kb/d.
According to this Article: U.S. would lose an average of 340 kb/d in January 2026 due to the cold weather.
“Most of the remaining outages were in the Permian Basin in Texas and New Mexico, which accounts for around half of U.S. crude production, according to Energy Aspects analyst Jesse Jones, who said production there was recovering quickly.”... |
