The video "Markets Just Made History, Again..." by FX Evolution provides a comprehensive look at the current state of the global markets as of early February 2026. Here is a summary of the key highlights and analysis:
Market Milestones and Macro Trends- Dow 50,000: The Dow Jones Industrial Average has officially crossed the 50,000 mark, a historic milestone. However, the host notes that the "new Dow theory" might actually be more focused on the performance of semiconductors [ 00:00], [ 18:20].
- AI and Debt: Alphabet (Google) is planning a 100-year bond to fund massive data center buildouts for the AI revolution. There are growing concerns about whether AI will eventually generate the revenue needed to justify this capital expenditure [ 01:04].
- Fed Independence: Reports suggest the Federal Reserve may start linking more closely with the government, potentially ending the 1951 agreement that ensured its independence. This could significantly impact the treasury market and how national debt is managed [ 02:22].
Sector Rotation and "The Big Shift"- Energy vs. Tech: For the first time since the inflation spike of 2021-22, the energy sector is outperforming the Magnificent 7. This indicates a shift in focus toward rare earth minerals, metals, and commodities as countries scramble for resources [ 03:41].
- Regional Banks: There has been a notable breakout in regional banks, driven by deregulation and expansion. However, this also mirrors patterns seen before the 2008 financial crisis, signaling potential risks in lending quality [ 06:40].
- Consumer Stress: Data shows consumer discretionary stocks are breaking down relative to staples, suggesting the American consumer is becoming "stretched" [ 14:11].
Technical Analysis and Key Levels- S&P 500 (7,000 Level): The S&P is currently in a range-bound market. A close above 7,000 is considered a major bullish signal that could open the door for a push toward 7,200 [ 11:45].
- Nvidia and Tech: Nvidia is testing a critical resistance level at $195. A breakout here would likely signal a move back to all-time highs and pull the rest of the tech market with it [ 12:56], [ 17:25].
- ARK Innovation (ARKK): A "head and shoulders" pattern has appeared on the ARK charts. While it has held onto support for now, a failure here could lead to significant downside for high-growth tech [ 06:03], [ 19:09].
- Tesla: The $400 level has held as support, with the options market showing increased bullishness toward the $420 level [ 12:32].
Commodities and Crypto- Oil and Gold: Brent oil is breaking out, signaling continued strength in energy [ 15:10]. Gold remains the preferred hedge against currency debasement, while silver has shown strength after breaking through $81/oz [ 16:07].
- Bitcoin: Bitcoin recently saw a 3% daily drop, which historically can indicate a temporary bottom. Key support (put walls) for the IBIT ETF is between $35 and $40 [ 09:56], [ 13:22].
Investor OutlookThe host warns that this is a mid-term election year (2026), which traditionally introduces higher volatility. Investors are advised to watch the "hyperscalers" (major cloud/AI players) as they enter earnings season, with expected price swings of +/- 15% [ 10:44], [ 20:02].
Video Link: Markets Just Made History, Again...
Markets Just Made History, Again...
|
