RE: Angi Inc (ANGI) - earnings miss but their FCF yield is attractive
Picked up a tracking position AFTER Hours at $9.91. FCF Yield >20% !
The Q4 2025 earnings report released after the bell on February 10, 2026, shows a company still in the middle of a difficult pivot. While management is touting a "return to growth" for the coming year, the market is reacting to a double miss on both the top and bottom lines.
With the stock trading at $9.95 in after-hours (AH) action—a drop of roughly 15-18% from the daily close—the valuation metrics have shifted significantly.
1. Q4 2025 Earnings vs. Expectations
The "miss" this quarter was wider than analysts anticipated, which explains the sharp AH sell-off.
- Revenue: $240.77 million (vs. $245.58 million expected). This represents a roughly 9-10% year-over-year decline, continuing the trend of strategic revenue shedding.
- GAAP EPS: $0.17 (vs. $0.38 consensus estimate). This was a significant miss, likely impacted by one-time restructuring costs related to the ~350-employee workforce reduction announced earlier.
- Service Requests: Continued to see pressure, following the 7.7% decline seen in the previous quarter.
2. Updated Value Metrics (at $9.95 AH Price)
At the new $9.95 price point, ANGI enters "deep value" territory, but with the caveat that growth remains elusive.
| Metric | Pre-Earnings (at ~$12) | Post-Earnings (at $9.95) | Industry Avg | | P/E Ratio (TTM) | ~15x - 18x | ~12x - 13x | 18.5x | | P/E Ratio (Forward) | ~10x | ~8.3x | 15.6x | | FCF Yield | ~18% | ~22% | ~6-8% | | EV / EBITDA (Fwd) | ~5.5x | ~4.5x | 8.5x | | Price / Sales (TTM) | 0.54x | 0.44x | 1.30x |
- Free Cash Flow Yield: The yield has spiked to over 20%. This suggests that if the company can simply stop the revenue decline, the stock is historically cheap.
- Price to Book: ANGI is now trading at roughly 0.45x book value, meaning the market is valuing the company at less than half the net value of its assets.
3. Forward CAGR & 2026 Outlook
Despite the Q4 miss, management reaffirmed their 2026 targets during the release. The "Value" play here is dependent on these growth projections:
- 2026 Revenue Growth Target: Reconfirmed at mid-single digits (4-6%).
- Efficiency Gains: The company expects to realize the full $70M - $80M in annual run-rate savings from recent layoffs throughout 2026.
- Proprietary Growth: Management noted that "Proprietary" channel leads grew by double digits, which they view as the "blue line" to recovery in 2027.
Summary: The "AH" Market Verdict
The market is currently ignoring the high FCF yield and focusing on the $0.21 EPS miss. At $9.95, the stock is priced for a "no-growth" scenario. For the valuation to re-rate, ANGI must deliver on its promise of revenue stabilization in the first half of 2026. |
