Gemini said
This video by FX Evolution analyzes the current state of the U.S. economy and financial markets, focusing on recent job data revisions and shifts in market "flows."
1. Economic Outlook: The "Sicker" Jobs DataThe host expresses significant concern over the disconnect between surface-level news and underlying data [ 00:11].
- Job Revisions: While current job numbers may look positive, the host highlights a downward revision of 862,000 jobs from 2025 [ 00:00].
- Layoff Trends: Data from Challenger suggests that January saw one of the worst starts to a year for layoffs since 2009 [ 01:11].
- Recession Warning: The ratio of new jobs to job seekers is currently around 0.8; if this worsens, it could signal a significant economic decline or recession [ 02:33].
2. Market Sentiment and RotationThe video emphasizes a "Tale of Two Markets" where different sectors are behaving inconsistently [ 00:30].
- Small Caps vs. Tech: There is a notable rotation into small-cap stocks and "Value" over "Growth" [ 06:22]. The host notes that when small caps lead late in a cycle (post-rate cut), it often signals a "late-cycle" market phase [ 05:33].
- Short Selling: Short interest in software stocks is at record highs, and overall short selling across single stocks is the highest since 2016 [ 08:41].
- Magnificent 7 Distribution: Dark pool and large-scale trade data suggest heavy "distribution" (selling) of major tech stocks like Apple, Microsoft, and Google [ 09:24].
3. Key Asset Analysis- S&P 500: The index is currently "trapped" in a range, facing heavy resistance at the 7,000 level and support at 6,800 [ 13:02].
- Energy and Oil: Oil services and energy stocks are described as "flying" and "unstoppable," showing strong flow despite mainstream media skepticism [ 16:12].
- Commodities: Silver recently broke the 81 level, potentially signaling a move toward 90, though the host warns that "easy money" may already be over when everyone is watching it [ 17:19].
- Crypto: Bitcoin recently saw a massive increase in "puts" (bearish bets), which could ironically create a structural base for the market to pause or bounce [ 10:08].
ConclusionThe host advises viewers to focus on "flow over opinion" [ 20:10]. While the American consumer is showing signs of weakening [ 15:27], the bond market has not yet reached a point of panic, suggesting that markets may remain "irrational" for longer than expected [ 20:33].
Watch the full video here: google.com
Something Is Not Adding Up…
FX Evolution · 6.6K views
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