Gemini said
This video by Mike Jones Investing breaks down recent market volatility, key economic data shifts, and the technical patterns keeping the S&P 500 in a tight range.
Economic Data & Market Volatility- Employment Shifts: The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, and non-farm payrolls came in at 130k (double the estimate) [ 01:03]. However, the speaker highlights that nearly a million jobs have been quietly revised downward in recent months [ 02:04].
- Retail Weakness: Spending at restaurants and bars is softening, with retail sales decelerating below 2% [ 02:14]. This trend often precedes further cooling in January and February data [ 02:32].
- Wage Trends: Average hourly earnings are trending down toward 2018–2019 levels [ 03:12], though consumer prices remain high despite lower labor costs in some sectors [ 03:36].
Why the S&P 500 is "Stuck"- Absolute Return Dispersion: The market is seeing a rare level of "dispersion" where individual stocks are making massive moves, but the index itself remains flat [ 04:06]. This specific pattern has only been seen during the 2000 Dot-com crash and the 2008 financial crisis [ 04:23].
- Sector Rotation: Money is rotating into "defensive" plays like Healthcare (XLV), Utilities, and Consumer Staples (Walmart), which don't have enough weight to move the index significantly [ 05:29].
- The "Coiling" Effect: The S&P 500 is tightening and likely to make a major move soon. The speaker believes it could hit a new all-time high if semiconductors, particularly Nvidia, break through current resistance levels [ 05:07].
Sector & Stock Analysis- Semiconductors: This sector remains the primary engine. Stocks like ARM (up 30% in 5 days) and Taiwan Semi are showing extreme strength [ 08:25].
- Software (IGB): Software stocks are facing immense pressure. Even companies with strong earnings, like Shopify, saw 25% drops after opening [ 09:28].
- Crypto & Fintech: Bitcoin is consolidating near $59,000, which is weighing on stocks like Robinhood (HOOD) and Coinbase [ 11:47]. The speaker notes that 37% of Robinhood’s revenue is tied to crypto, making it vulnerable to volume drops [ 11:59].
What to Watch Next- Key Earnings: Upcoming reports from Coinbase, Pinterest, Arista, Rivian, DraftKings, and Applied Materials will be critical [ 12:45].
- Economic Indicators: Existing home sales and mortgage data are expected tomorrow, though they may not move the needle as much as the employment data [ 13:01].
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??This DATA Triggered A MAJOR Market SHIFT! Plus This EXPLAINS Why The S&P 500 Is STUCK!
Mike Jones Investing · 4.7K views
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