I agree with your assessment.
The current Oracle price has some high expectations built into it, fueled to a large extent by statements from management -- certainly not the first call estimates. I think it'll dive unless they blow out the estimates, and it won't be till next year that they start recovering. They've got many hurdles to overcome. First, the Asia problems (which affect not just ORCL's own business, but that of their potential customers, leaving them with less $$$ to spend on Oracle products). Then there's the competition, reorg, product transition I mentioned earlier. Finally, they've got some real tough compares coming up Jun and Oct. All these things together make for a gut-wrenching year for ORCL shareholders.
I expect there to be a prolonged sell-off beginning with this coming earnings announcement, leaving it ripe for bottom fishing sometime after October. Long term, I still regard Oracle as overall, the strongest of the Enterprise db players, so that'll be the time to load up. |
