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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor
GDXJ 94.04+0.6%Nov 21 4:00 PM EST

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To: Alex who wrote (7924)2/27/1998 1:12:00 AM
From: Abner Hosmer  Read Replies (1) of 116764
 
Alex -

I'm skeptical of the Euro posing such a threat to the dollar. I think Europe is going to experience a great deal of trouble in reaching economic convergence, establishing coherent/comprehensive monetary policy, managing conflicting regional interests, enhancing productivity, and achieving solid economic growth. It would be one thing if monetary convergence led to greater competition and opened up possibilities that enhanced the use and flow of capital. More likely is that labor will dominate and seek to militate a uniformly enhanced standard of social welfare. We are already seeing this in Spain, France, and elsewhere. Maybe Europe will go to a 36 hour work week as many in France want to do, after all, the only way to create a job is to take someone else's away. This is rudimentary Social Democratonomics. Maybe they will acheive 15% unemployment instead of 12%, and negative productivity growth. Besides, how will they keep the balance of trade flowing in their direction if the Euro is strong. Did you see the charts I posted from Yardeni's website on trade balances? That is the last thing they will tolerate.

Tom
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