Some interesting info can be derived from the HTCH PR last night..
I think, maybe, but someone needs to find my mistake...
1) They said they shipped 7mil TSA susps last Q. Last Q they reported
TSA rev was 17% of the total = $15.1mil. That makes the ASP = $2.16.
2) Last Q they reported TSA drag was around $0.50EPS = ~$10mil
So, from that we can estimate
TSA ACP = $2.16+(0.50*20mil shares)/7mil units) = $3.56!!!!
I've heard similar #s out there, but what really bothers me is that
They were quoting $1 to $2 in the CC for production costs
Something just doesn't add up... Can anyone figure it out?
My guess is that there are some big fixed costs involved and they
are quoting the ACP of the last few units???
3) Using the above #s for TSA, that makes ASP for conventional
susps $0.58 last Q. Using all those #s yields $78mil rev for the Q
and a loss of about $0.90. That is calculating using SG&A, R&D,
fixed costs etc. If I take the simpler approach and scale $0.56*13/8
equals a loss of $0.91. So my guess is that it's close.
4) Customers last Q were:
- SAE 27%, RDRT 19%, SEG 17%, IBM 13%, Yamaha 12%.
HTCH is selling 30% fewer susps this Q. Who's gonna preannounce
next??? Remember, you sell a head with every susp and
I think you can go further and say an HSA isn't much good
without media.. Maybe this is all factored into the indy forecasts?
5) Overall this looks bleak for the Indys, not great but not as bad for
the makers? At least maybe the inventories will drop finally...
todd |
