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Technology Stocks : Oracle Corporation (ORCL)

ORCL 198.80

-5.6%

Nov 21 9:30 AM EST

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To: zc66 who wrote (5677)	2/27/1998 10:32:00 AM
From: Mark Finger	Read Replies (1) of 19079

>>It's hard to believe that the growth will suddenly drop to 0%, after >>growing at 30+% for 7 years. Even in last quarter, the revenue >> growth was 29% (calculated in local currencies). The key that is the focus is the "license" growth, which was single digit last quarter for both DBMS engines and applications. I believe that if you want a leading indicator of future company growth, look at the license growth. It can give you warning ahead of time, while services will continue to grow for a while. If you want to see a better sign of this, go back and look at the Sybase license, service and overall sales growth over the last 4 years. I am not saying that Oracle will do anything like Sybase, but rather that is why I look so much at license growth numbers. Until Oracle can get license growth back into double digits, avoid it--at best it will move sideways in price in general, and be subject to more unexpected surprises like last quarter.

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