ORCL's price performance since double-witching has obviously been disturbing to those long as well as bewildering. But each situation may be explained away.
My take on all this, is that unfortunately, all those who have been convinced by management's prognostications earlier in the quarter have taken their positions in the stocks. I make particular reference to comments made by Ray Lane & Larry Ellison, as well as the buying that came out of the Merrill client gathering in Redwood City that propelled the stock north of 26 1/2 a couple weeks ago.
Right now, the nervous guys have been unraveling their positions, without buyers coming in to provide price support. Whether new buyers will move in prior to earnings release on March 13 remains to be seen. It will IMHO, dictate price performance subsequent to earnings release.
I think we have all been accustomed to see appreciable upward price movements prior to earnings, followed by the same downward movement as the result of profit taking after the announcement. Here, unless technicals change, we may find the opposite, provided ORCL meets or beats their numbers by a shekel or two.
The bottom line here, is that there appears to measurable uncertainty about The Street, as to where ORCL's 4Q numbers will fall.
JMO |
