Roger's 1998 Short Picks Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: taxikid who wrote (3747)	2/27/1998 8:55:00 PM
From: Bill Wexler	Read Replies (3) of 18691

Here's another interesting one... Someone pointed out on one of the threads that Bill Gates added $4.5 Billion to his wealth in about a week. I calculated that Gates needed a little over 15 years (since Microsoft's founding) to amass his first $5 Billion. Microsoft's market cap now compares to GE's - long considered to be a yardstick for the U.S. economy. GE employs about 250,000 people...Microsoft 10% of that number. I'm starting to see more news stories about Microsoft and Dell employee/millionaires followed by an interview with a smug 25 year old discussing how he is going to help humanity when he cashes in those options. Nearly every analyst and pundit agrees that the market is screaming to 9000, Barron's puts Abby Joseph Cohen on the cover with the caption, "Abby says relax", and Jim Cramer's commentary is beginning to sound a touch overconfident (if such a thing is possible for Jim Cramer). There has been an explosion of new "deep discount" brokerages and margin debt is at an all-time high. The entire financial community agrees that "you can't rely on social security" and the only path to financial security is through consistent investment in 401Ks. The country has also experienced a long period of spectacular growth in all forms of legalized gambling. Finally, (IMO) judging from the general chat on the internet and listening to the talking heads on CNBC, I've come to the conclusion that the perception of risk in buying stocks is at an all-time low, and the disdain for contrarian opinion is at an all-time high. Like I said, it's impossible to predict a top...but if these aren't some good clues that the market is about to get its butt royally kicked, then I'm going to sell everything I own and put every last cent into Yahoo! stock.

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