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Technology Stocks : LSI Corporation

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To: Tom Caruthers who wrote (10247)	2/27/1998 10:49:00 PM
From: shane forbes	Read Replies (1) of 25814

Tom: Yup strange hours are my speciality. Thanks a lot for the PlayStation numbers. ---- You got to love exponential functions don't you! From the press release: Percentage increase in sales of 50% in 6 months. We should therefore see, not another 10 million in 6 months, but likely around 15 million more PlayStations (50% of the 30 million) over the next 6 months! This means that if the current rate continues Sony will hit 40 million units in June and 45 million in August 1998. This also means that right now LSI has to keep the fab fires burning at 2.5 million chips a month. I think that's where we are (maybe 2 mil. not sure). ---- For the fun part: Taken a step further by Feb of next year we should see PlayStations sold go to 67.5 million. (2 increases of 50% over 2 spans of 6 months). Ignoring inventory, this means that LSI has to produce about 37.5 million chips over the next 12 months. That's revenue for LSI somewhere in the 400 to 550 million range... This also means that towards December of this year LSI would have to be doing around 3.5 million chips a month. --- Being conservative, I'll take 350 million over the next 12 months! Besides the exponential function will eventually flatten and decay. Competition from someone could also kill it. Also there may have been a spike around Xmas. Nevertheless the exponential functions is a babe, esp. if you imagine little Presidents dancing along the curve - then it gets truly bodacious!!! --- Finally it looks like the yahoo mystery person may be an SI person or have immediate access to SI. He or she quoted your 30 million Sony chips today on the yahoo board. Doesn't someone need to be a member to get access to the recent stuff on SI? [Unless there are other round-a-bout ways...] --- Shane - product cycles are your friends

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