Ok All,
Here is some interesting news for everyone. It is a recent article in a very well
respected business journal. Read very carefully.
LITTLE KNOWN PATHOGEN COULD MEAN HUGE REVENUE BOOST
FOR ANTEX BIOLOGICS.
Biotech Firm is Working on Vaccine for Campylobacter. If Successful, Product Could
Be Worth $200M - $400M/Year.
By: Shell Schwartz - Daily Record Business Writer
Toss around the terms "salmonella" and "E-Coli" and most people not only are familiar
with the food-borne pathogens, but also can spout off their symptoms.
And yet, Campylobacter - now the leading cause of food poisoning in this country -
has gone largely unnoticed.
"Not many people are aware of this [bacteria], but it is definitely on the emerging
disease list," said Vic Esposito, chairman and chief executive of Antex Biologics in
Gaithersburg. "Salmonella has been around a lot longer and gets a lot more attention,
but you will be hearing more about Campylobacter than salmonella [in the future]."
Potential Windfall
Antex Biologics, a biopharmaceutical firm, is the only company in the world developing
a vaccine for Campylobacter.
The company is working with both the US Navy and pharmceutical giant SmithKline
Beecham to develop a product that prevents Campylobacter related illness - which can
cause severe diarrhea and in some cases death.
If successful, analysts project the vaccine will be worth between $200 million and
$400 million a year. Revenues like that would be enough to drive cash-poor Antex
deep into profitability.
"[Antex] has to show the reduction of bacteria levels and the translation of that effect
into the reduction of diarrhea levels", said First Boston biotech analyst Shekbar Basu.
"These are still early trials, but so far SmithKline Beecham is very positive about the
outcomes Antex has had in animal testing."
Four million Campylobacter infections occur in the United States each year, according
to national health authorities.
Worldwide, up to 500 million cases of Campylobacter-induced diarrhea are reported
annually. Combined with pneumonia, the dehydration caused by severe diarrhea
causes half of all deaths of children under age 5.
"I think the incidence of Campylobacter infection as actually under-reported," Esposito
said. "A lot of people who have upset stomachs or diarrhea don't go to the hospital".
Campylobacter, he said, is usually spread through infected chicken meal.
In the United States, studies suggest that 70% to 90% of chickens carry the pathogen.
GROWING CHALLENGE
Until recently, proper cooking and handling of chicken meal and the antibiotics given to
the birds while alive, kept the bacteria in check. But it's not that easy anymore.
"You are starting to find antibiotic-resistant strains of Campylobacter emerging,"
Esposito said.
Additionally, scientists are beginning to suspect Guillain Barre Syndrome, an acute
paralytic illness, may follow Campylobacter infections - about 5000 cases of Guillain
Barre occur in the United States each year.
Antex has several other vaccines in clinical trials, but the Campylobacter vaccineis
farthest along in the pipeline.
If all goes as planned, the company could be seeking approval on the patented product
as early as 2000.
There is mention of last years third quarter results and the Deloitte & Touche fastest
growing companies list for this year.
If you read this article carefully, you will have seen a big ANALYST talking about
Antex. Albeit no hype .... but an analyst nonetheless. On another note ..... I am not
sure how many of you have seen the investment banking model for Antex. Anyway ....
the current valuation of Antex ...FULLY DILUTED (35 million shares) ..... was
currently $2.51. THe interesting part is that my model used only $60 Million dollars in
the calculation for Campylobacter. You can now see why I am very excited ....... if I
plug in $200 million and Antex goes to Phase III trial soon ..... the valuation POPS TO
$6.52 PER SHARE FULLY DILUTED !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! ($10 current out)
Oh geezzzz ...... I think I wet my pants !!!!!
I think we are about to embark to new levels this year with Antex. I'm sure you all
know what I have been doing the last two days ...... buying more Antex shares !
Comments ????
Mike |
