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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: Liatris Spicata who wrote (14413)2/28/1998 3:16:00 AM
From: paulmcg0  Read Replies (3) of 94695
 
[I disagree with your assessment that "the stock market is a form of gambling"]

The idea that Wall Street is a form of gambling has been advanced before. For example, Nicholas Darvas wrote a book titled Wall Street: The Other Las Vegas in the 1960s, that was reprinted in the 1980s. (This book is currently out of print though).

What else would you call the current market mania, besides gambling? Particularly when you consider the ridiculous prices being paid for the most popular shares compared to the company's economic fundamentals. People who buy stocks with high P/E ratios and low (or non-existent) dividend yields are gambling that someone else will pay more for the stock than they did. I'd say it's gambling when the market valuation on Wall Street exceeds the gross domestic product of the U.S., by 40% as it does now.

I used to play the stock market, and I have to confess that I knew I was gambling at the time. I had some losses but, overall, I came out ahead. I used my profits to help pay off my debts. I recommend that other people do the same, while they still can.

The big question of course is: How long will the market continue to go up before it corrects sharply? It could be another year, or, the stock market could crash on Monday. I don't pretend to know when it will happen, but bull markets like this one have inevitably been followed by steep declines.

Paul McGinnis
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