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Technology Stocks : Aladdin Knowledge Systems (ALDN)
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To: Clifford Topel who wrote (204)2/28/1998 7:21:00 AM
From: Dr. J  Read Replies (1) of 351
 
Earnings estimates have been lowered repeatedly over the last few weeks. According to my model, if you assume Aladdin growth rate of 20%, you get EPS of $1.11; at 15% you get $1.04. I think analysts are assuming that Q4 growth rate (15% in revenue) may continue into next year + some small contribution from ASE.

Industry growth rate (combining RNBO and ALDNF numbers) was about 11% which is down from 15% most analysts have been assuming. But it was a slow quarter all round in the industry - not many shipments. WIth Win98 (Win99?) release we should see a pickup. Also, Aladdin took market share from Rainbow again last quarter.

I am still trying to find out what they made on ASE in Q4; no response from management which is not a very good sign.
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