1998 Quarterly Sales Estimate ..............
Version V981b
Hi James,
Truth is - I could not wait to write you.
I've been in a *fog* over what has *not* happened
to Biox.
So I've been searching for whats *wrong*.
Well - I've found it. Nothings wrong.
-----------------------------------------
I will sum up the 4th quarter as follows:
-----------------------------------------
(1) BIOX shipped *2 MONTHS* worth of SYNVISC
to AHP in the 4th quarter.
Thats right - they *STOPPED SHIPPING* at the
end of NOVEMBER. <VBG>!
And the buzzards even told us - sort of - except
I didn't *get(realize)* the message until
last night.
I am referring to their release that said that
Biox and AHP had completed their launch (11/26/97).
(2) This action speaks volumes about BIOX and
AHP management.
It is *ALL* positive.
They could have easily shipped sales into December.
And made Q4 sales look awesome.
They did not.
They knew the Christmas/party/vacation season
would prevent any meaningful SELL-THRU.
Because of their action ..............
(3) On a SEQUENCTIAL basis ( Q4-97 vs Q1-98)
SYNVISC SALES will rise ALMOST *50%*!
This *PRODUCT* SALES increase will draw
*lots* of attention especially from
*Momentum* players.
i.e. NOT TRADERS - MOMENTUM PLAYERS
(4) BIOX jacked up 4th qtr. expense $500,000.
This, I am guessing, was to establish their
*outposts* in Europe - primarily the U.K.
I *don't* know how much of this cost was/is a
1 time hit.
(5) A quarterly sales estimate (by Country/Distributor)
is below.
It shows 7 columns of numbers.
The first is Q497.
The next 5 are 1998 numbers.
The last column is my original (Oct 97) estimate
of full year 1998 for BIOX.
Do *not* be put-off by my takedown of 1998 numbers.
I was shooting in the dark back then - now we have
a clearer picture.
These Sales numbers (in my opinion) look terrific
and *very* makeable.
(6) At this time, I cannot complete the whole P&L.
I must wait for 1st quarter actuals to see what the R&D and
G&A actuals were.
R&D will be impacted (negatively) by the new, required HYLAFORM.
Phase 3 tests.
G&A will be impacted by the *outpost* costs.
We're looking good, buddy,
and the great thing is Q1 - 1998 is ONLY 7 weeks away.
So we'll get to see how dumb - I really is!
Note:I am going to post a LINK to this on YAHOO.
Regards,
John
==================================================
BIOMATRIX - 1998 QUARTERY SALES
==================================================
BY DISTRIBUTOR/COUNTRY
==================================================
Version V981b
==================================================
Abreviations:
------------------------------
Companies
==============================
AHP - American Home Products
ANIK - Anika Research (Orthvisc - early '99)
------------------------------
BMY - Bristol Meyers Squibb (Agreement with ANIK)
BI - Boehringer Ingelheim
BAY - Bayer
------------------------------
CGEN - Collagen (HylaForm Face Wrinkle with BIOX)
------------------------------
FF - Farmila Farmaceutici
Ferr - Ferrer (Agreement with ANIK)
------------------------------
N/A - Not Available
RPR - Rhorer
ROC - Roche
Rec - Recordati
------------------------------
Countries
==============================
Aus - Austria
Aust - Australia
Alg - Algeria
------------------------------
Can - Canada
Chi - China
------------------------------
Fra - France
Finl - Finland
------------------------------
Ger - Germany
Gre - Greece
------------------------------
Indo - Indonesia
Thai - Thailand
Ital - Italy
------------------------------
Kuw - Kuwait
------------------------------
Mal - Malaysia
Mor - Morraco
------------------------------
NZ - New Zeland
Nor - Norway
Ne/H - Neth/Holland
------------------------------
Swe - Sweden
Sing - Singapore
Sp/P - Spain/Portuagal
SA - Saudia Arabia
Swit - Switzerland
------------------------------
Taiw - Taiwan
Tur - Turkey
------------------------------
UK - United Kingdom
------------------------------
Headings
==============================
Q497 - 4th Quarter 1997
Ctry - Country Sold in
Dis - Distributor of Product
Comp - Potential Competitor to BIOX
Prior - Previous Projection
------------------------------
Other
------------------------------
Syn - Synvisc - O/A PRODUCT
Hyl - Hylaform - Face Wrinkle Product
Hys - HylaShield - Eye Product
------------------------------
---------------------------------------
Synvisc
---------------------------------------
From BrookeHill Equities - January 8, 1998
---------------------------------------
The Brookehill report notes that Synvisc could become
a $150-200 million product for Biomatrix by the end of the
decade (revenues are projected to be $10 million in 1997),
and realize aftertax margins of 40%. ''Biomatrix is also
nearing commercialization of 6-8 next-generation products
that could be in the marketplace by 2000, and which could
be generating annual revenues of at least $100 million
(and earnings in excess of $3.00 per share) several years after
introduction,'' reports Brookehill.
---------------------------------------------------------------
1998 Quarterly Projected
P&L
Biomatrix Inc. (BIOX)
}------------ 1998 --------------{
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
Q497 Ctry Dis Comp Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total Prior
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
4,600 USA Ahp Bmy 7,300 9,300 11,300 13,300 41,200 47,000
300 Ger Ahp Anik 300 500 600 700 2,100 4,100
0 Sp/P Ahp Ferr 25 25 50 50 150 0
0 Aus Ahp Anik 25 25 35 35 120 0
0 Gre Ahp Anik 5 5 10 10 30 0
0 SA Ahp n/a 5 5 5 5 20 0
0 Kuw AHP n/a 5 5 5 5 20 0
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
4,900 Tot AHP 7,665 9,865 12,005 14,104 43,640 51,100
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
250 Fra Bi Anik 300 400 500 600 1,800 1,200
0 Alg Bi n/a 5 5 5 5 20 0
0 Morr Bi n/a 5 5 5 5 20 0
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
250 Tot Bi 310 410 510 610 1,840 1,200
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
350 Can RPR Bmy 400 300 200 200 1,100 1,600
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
250 Swe Roc Anik 200 250 250 300 1,000 800
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
15 Ital Rec Anik 25 25 35 35 120 300
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
N/A Aust Bay Bmy N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 0
N/A NZ Bay Bmy N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 0
0 Isra Bay n/a 5 5 5 5 20 400
0 Indo Bay n/a 1 1 1 1 4 0
0 Thai Bay n/a 1 1 1 1 4 0
0 Mala Bay n/a 1 1 1 1 4 0
0 Taiw Bay n/a 1 1 1 1 4 0
0 Sing Bay n/a 1 1 1 1 4 0
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
0 Tot Bayer 10 10 10 10 40 400
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
0 Chi Bio n/a 5 5 5 5 20 275
0 UK Bio Anik 25 25 50 50 150 475
0 Ne/H Bio Anik 1 1 5 5 12 0
0 Bel Bio Anik 1 1 5 5 12 0
0 Swit Bio Anik 1 1 5 5 12 4
0 Nor Bio Anik 1 1 5 5 12 4
0 Finl Bio Anik 1 1 5 5 12 4
0 Turk N/A Anik 0 0 0 0 0 0
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
0 Tot Bioxmat 35 35 80 80 230 762
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
5,765 Tot Synvisc 8,645 10,895 13,090 15,340 47,970 56,162
====== ==== === ==== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ======
400 Hyl For Cgen 400 400 400 400 1,600 1,600
0 Hyl USA Cgen 0 0 0 0 0 2,100
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
400 Tot Hylaform 400 400 400 400 1,600 3,700
====== ==== === ==== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ======
10 Tot HyS FF 30 30 30 30 120 120
72 Mis. Cosmetics 200 200 200 200 800 800
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
6,247 Total Products 9,275 11,525 13,720 15,970 50,490 60,782
====== ==== === ==== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ======
1,000 AHP 0 0 0 6,000 6,000 6,000
0 Bayer 0 0 0 0 0 2,000
0 Boeh Ing 0 1,000 1,000 1,000 3,000 4,000
439 CGEN 200 200 200 200 800 5,000
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
1,439 Total Fees 200 1,200 1,200 7,200 9,800 17,000
====== ==== === ==== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ======
7,686 Total Revenue 9,475 12,725 14,920 23,170 60,290 77,782
====== ==== === ==== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ======
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
0.27 COGS - % 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.27 0.35
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
1699 COGS - $ 2,504 3,112 3,704 4,312 13,632 21,274
====== ==== === ==== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ======
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
0.73 GM - % 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.73 0.65
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
4,548 GM - $ 6,771 8,413 10,016 11,658 36,858 39,508
1,439 Licens $ 200 1,200 1,200 7,200 9,800 17,000
------ ---- --- ---- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
5,987 Total GM - $ 6,971 9,613 11,216 18,858 46,658 56,508
====== ==== === ==== ====== ====== ====== ====== ====== ======
Rest of the P&L is WORK-IN-PROGRESS ................
The license fee situation is complicated.
Here goes nothing ....
(1) AHP
-------
will pay BIOX $6.0 mil. in the 4th qtr. of 1998.
However, AHP may owe BIOX additional fees which are dependent
on the level of 1998 gross sales of SYNVISC.
At what level of sales these fees kick in are not known.
Actual monies paid thru 12/31/97: $17.0 mil.
Expected 1998 monies: $ 6.0 mil.
(2) Bayer
---------
potentially owes BIOX another $2.0 mil. in fees.
However, Bayer will have *NO* meaningful shipments of
SYNVISC in all of 1998.
The problem is SYNVISC is *NOT* approved for shipment
to Australia and New Zealand.
I actually have a letter from Bayer to me explaining this
to me.
Actual monies paid thru 12/31/97: $3.0 mil.
Expected 1998 monies: $0.0 mil.
(3) Boehringer Ingelheim
-------------------------
will pay BIOX 8.0 mil. in up front fees and milestone payments.
Actual monies paid thru 12/31/97: $0.0 mil.
Expected 1998 monies: $4.0 mil.
No doubt, BI gave BIOX *something* in 1997.
However, BIOX has not, to my knowledge, ever published the amount.
(5) Collegen
-------------------------
will pay BIOX continuing *fees* based on the European
sales of Hylaform.
CGEN paid BIOX $5.0 mil. for the rights to Hylaform in Europe.
They would have paid and additional $7.0 mil. for the rights
in the USA. However, HYLAFORM failed passing the FDA.
BIOX has announced it will take until 1999 to get the necessary
data before the FDA.
Actual monies paid thru 12/31/97: $5.0 mil.
Expected 1998 monies: $0.0 mil.
Note:There will in fact be payments to BIOX for European Hylaform
sales. These amounts are too difficult to track. |
