>>And, if you could, post those "I am going to cash" or especially "I am going on vacation" :) thoughts.<<
Hi Richard and all
Just thought that I would emerge out of hibernation for long enough to post a couple of thoughts.
As you know, because of other commitments, I have not been trading the markets since late December-- except for the futures markets--and as a result I am far from being fully invested. I am not headed for any extended vacation either--as yet:) However, if I were fully invested at this time, I would be using this opportunity to liquidate long trading positions into strength. I don't think that there is any danger of an imminent INTERMEDIATE term top -- the market internals and momentum are too favorable for this to be the case--but I think that the current market environment favors a cautious approach. This is the type of environment that favors a gradual liquidation -- something like the 10% per week approach that I used last summer to liquidate trading positions into strength. Alternatively, other hedging techniques may be appropriate.
I expect any short-term top that occurs in the near future to be followed by a rebound and most likely new highs--and when sentiment deteriorates markedly accompanied by momentum failures, an intermediate term top may be in place.
As always, I reserve the right to be wrong, of course:)
In the meantime, I shall continue to be trade the futures--am still long the March futures from about 10 days ago in what seems a good trade so far---this is after several successive losing trades.
I hope to be able to take a more active part on the thread commencing the latter part of March when I shall resume trading.
Now I shall return to a state of hibernation:)
My regards to all--hope the markets have been treating you kindly. |
