Linda,
The April 22.5 Call is a good buy even right now with little money for
fun. Now, you bet on the following events to occur or thoughts coming
ture during the period between now and April 17th:
(1) New CEO announcement - There is a very high probability that
it will occur. Look at SGI, its price boosted around 15% in a
single day when the new CEO was announced a couple months ago.
Apple could choose a group of stong BOD team, it should not be
difficult to choose a very qualified CEO, either Jobs will take
the position or others from IBM, EDS, HP etc. It has been rumored
that the new CEO will be seleted within 30 days, which will fit
into your time window.
(2) Q2 prospective outlook - It has demostrated excellent sales in
the last January coupled with successful "snail" ads in February
4th, the entire quarter's sales should be brisk. The G3's sales
momentum will be extremely high and the margin can be sustained.
Another words, Q2's outlook is very promising and surprising to
street's analysts. Some may already realize the situation, and
already heavily accumulated the stock, it is a lively example in
last week's trading pattern.
(3) Gamble with Jobs - You just have to think what Jobs wants Q2 looks
like. If he wants to let Q1 just a blip similar to Gil's, then
he would feel he is totally a failure. Well, maybe he think
otherwise. From his public speech regarding Q1, it is clear he
very cares about revenue/net income. From Anderson conference
calls, he also extremely focus on cost and net. So, the evdience
is loud and clear that Q2 will be taken care of very well. This
is probably his only chance to turn around Apple and is also
Apple's last chance to change its image.
(4) Apple's stock trend - Bullish, no other words can describe the
current condition better. I have been through with stocks, such
as DEC, AMAT, AT&T, and knew very well about the trends of those
stocks. They have same pattern of upward trends. I bet Apple
will follow the same pattern as shorts are gradually out of the
game.
I couldn't tell you when to sell the calls to maximize your profit
or minimize the loss, instead, I can only give you what forces could
support you to hold until the last minute.
It is purely my thinking of Apple's from speculative point of view.
Phil |
