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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Haim R. Branisteanu who wrote (14464)	2/28/1998 9:54:00 PM
From: William H Huebl	Read Replies (2) of 94695

Haim, Here is my Barron's based forecast: Feb 28 1998 Weekly=Down Mon=d,Tu=d,W=d,Th=d VIX=800 points down VGY=Sell DJIA mom (377) =near peak Gut feeling - VGY broke above 480. it is off to the races! Volatility=retreating Overall-not up Evaluation:of last week's forecast: Weekly-Wrong Daily-80% right Gut feelings: right Last week was the 7th week in 9 with a bad forecast. BUT my gut feelings were right AGAIN Summary: For some reason, the weekly forecasts based on the Barron's information has reversed and now down is up and vice versa. Since the most actives are doing rather well in forecasting the daily ups and downs AND they are well under 50, my sense is the market is getting MUCH more speculative and it is, perhaps, the volatile blow-off that will get us to 9,600 soon. What REALLY bothers me is that usually reliable indicators seem now to be of no use what so ever. The 2 conditions I mentioned a month or so ago which was necessary for the bull to resume are in place... VIX under 20 AND a strong move up in A/D. I HAVE to assume, that although most of my usually reliable indicators are pointing down, that this will be another up week... perhaps wildly so as everyone throws caution to the winds and BUYS!!! Be careful! Bill

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