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Strategies & Market Trends : Asia Forum
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To: Stitch who wrote (2436)3/1/1998 5:18:00 AM
From: Michael  Read Replies (2) of 9980
 
Stitch, All,

I've been lurking on this thread for a while, and find it informative but curiously bullish. My own take on ASEAN right now is that there is plenty more stormy weather ahead. Negatives include:

1. The parlous situation in Japan. Don't know how exactly that will work out, but don't figure it will be good. Given their importance as a source of credit and a market for ASEAN that does not bode well.

2. The effects of credit contractions, high interest rates and bankrupties that have still to play out.

3. The financial and political effects of the Indonesian shadow play which are still to come.

4. Longer term, the possibility of China devaluing the Yuan.

All of these except the Yuan devaluation are definite problems, its just the scale that is unknown at this point. Any one of them IMHO, could be a source of crushing bad news, yet the markets don't seem too concerned right now.

What do you guys think of these as potential threats.

Regards

Michael
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