Vi, you can be certain that Russia would tank along with all other Emerging Markets in case we get a global clobbering. The reason simply is that there is so much foreign money in the Russian markets, especially out of the US and London. This is hot money: When the weather is nice it comes in, when it's raining they withdraw in a second as witnessed last summer before the Asian crisis hit.
Long term the good thing for Russia IMO is that they slashed and burned the old system. Now they are still learning the new system of entrepreneurship and capitalism and self-reliance, so it takes time and patience until economic progress is felt by the masses, but it will come, I'm sure. At least the legislative and political environment is there now, even though the structures are still rather weak I admit.
I'm a long term bull on Russia, meaning over the next 5, 10, 20 years. I really am. Short-term anything can happen, but barring a new revolution, they'll do fine as the new system establishes itself more and more. It's probably a question of one generation.
Hope this helps,
Thomas |
