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Strategies & Market Trends : Russia/Templeton Russia Fund (TRF)
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To: Still Rolling who wrote (57)3/1/1998 8:34:00 AM
From: Thomas Haegin   of 94
 
Craig, no, I'm not really concerned about Ruble weakness when I invest in Russia. TRF has performed very well in the 18 months I owned it, despite the Ruble tanking continously (more or less). In fact I think that shares (certificates of Co. ownership) are quite a good hedge against inflation in that the natural resources always have a fair value that one can measure in USD, for example. LUKoil I would consider a very good inflation hedge. I would expect their share price to rise even in a sideways market if the RUR goes down vs. the dollar.

With regard to the banks, they usually profit easily from a falling RUR in that keep selling the RUR forward. In fact the relative stability of the RUS sometimes in 96/97 had many of them in difficulty as trading profits were not as easily achieved anymore. Banks had to learn actual "banking". In fact, they still do.

Yes, I definitely intend to hold Inkombank for the long term, meaning years. I would not invest in Russia with a short-term trading mindset. I agree that the Russian development story is one of many years.

I do not have a big position, but among all the EmMa's I like Russia the best because they have everything there. All they need is to develop their potential. And this will happen I'm sure, but not overnight. Stressing the long-term is essential.

Kind regards,
Thomas
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