<< By 2000, one of the big companies will invent a better, cheaper way to carve silicon. Someone like Lucent. >> Starbase, do you understand anything about semiconductor mfg?? Do you really think think that there will be some "new technology" which is deployable and in production within 2 or 3 years that nobody's heard about yet? This really sounds like the desperate ramblings of a short hoping to stop the tide from washing over their position. If you want to look at what the threats to CYMI are, they look at who will be able to produce equivalent or better lasers at the same or lower cost in the next two or three years. If CYMI's stock price is to crash it will be because of that or problems with their products, not from some fantasy technology from Lucent or IBM or any body else. Remember, in this business virtually all new technology either comes from University environments or involves them in its original development. As a result, the work is known and discussed at scientific and engineering forums, journals, etc. You just don't see "wow, we just invented a new way of doing this and it'll be on the market next year" announcements....
Neither you nor I know what the full impact of the Asian currency crisis will be and it surely has a real downside potential for CYMI and other semi-mfg co's. But, there is a reason that all of these companies are down +50% from '97 highs...its called ASIA. Have their prices been discounted sufficiently to account for the Asian disruptions? I don't know, but, the fact that business will be weak is anticipated in the current price. Question is how weak and for how long... |
