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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 330.48+2.4%Feb 9 3:59 PM EST

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To: akidron who wrote (16816)3/1/1998 1:52:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
Aki,

I do think that we are the benefactors of market exhuberance and mutual fund inflows to a certain extent. Read: AMAT is not the bargain it was in '96 at 1X revs. Having said that, this is not '96 revisited. This is a temporary slowdown with a large latent demand for equipment bsing delayed because of uncertainties over SEA. Many semis have come out and said this. Given that this is not a end user demad problem, once capital can be acquired by Korea, IMO they will put it to use in the semis. They too have already come out and said this. Given that there is not an end user demand problem like in '96 and the fact that there is much equipment to be upgraded, in no way would I compare this current downturn to the one of '96. I have already given an analogy of what I perceive the situation to be: its like an 8.0 earthquake followed by a MUCH smaller aftershock. IMHO, we are currently experiencing the aftershock.

Brian
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