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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!

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To: kas1 who wrote (2813)3/1/1998 6:47:00 PM
From: Mark Brophy  Read Replies (3) of 10309
 
You forgot one Microsoft battle.

They went up against OS/2 and annihilated IBM. They didn't even start fighting and get a divorce until it was obvious that IBM had no chance of winning.

WordPerfect and 1-2-3 could've easily beat Microsoft, but they refused to port their product to Windows for many years in an effort to support OS/2. They should've known that Microsoft was their friend, not IBM.

A browser is very simple technology that was originally programmed by 8 college students. Netscape should be thought of as a company similar to Symantec that exists at the sufference of Microsoft.

Novell hasn't been destroyed. NetWare still has a much larger user base than WinNT, although they're doing their best to wither it away as fast as possible. Even so, Novell has done nothing for years and inertia alone still retains a large user base. Similar comments applied at one time to 1-2-3 and WordPerfect. You really must be a greedy fool for a long time before finally losing your market. Ditto Apple OS.

Microsoft has been battling in the database market for years. They dispatched a self-destructing Borland on the desktop after about 5 years, but BackOffice is still trying to make a dent in Oracle, Sybase, IBM, and Informix. Microsoft is growing faster, but they're still only one player in a crowded market. They haven't even tried competing in apps against SAP, Oracle, IBM, and PeopleSoft.

Microsoft has already beaten Wind River in the big TCI set-top box contract. They're also making inroads in the auto market, but it's still pretty early. They also made some telecom announcements with Nokia and Ericsson. Each company will hold it's own and neither will dominate.

Wind River will grow steadily and require periodic $14m capital and/or technology infusions. Why bother paying a 60 P/E for Wind River when you can buy Qualcomm for 30 P/E or RadiSys for 18 P/E?
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