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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: PaulM who wrote (3396)	3/1/1998 7:21:00 PM
From: Paul Senior	Read Replies (1) of 78525

My opinion is that it is very dangerous to combine a macro view with a micro or value orientation. In my opinion, value investors should buy value when and where they find it. (With diversification within value categories - geography, business, size, etc.) Period. Anyone taking significant actions based on their outlook for the economy, their thoughts about interest rates, the general lofty levels of the market --- these actions IMO have resulted in losing situations. And IMO it's a terrible place to be when one is a sold-out bull (or bear) and the market - and most investors - are doing well. One is then in the position of hoping things get bad to be vindicated and presumably to get back in. Any tactics that anticipate the economy or try to reduce anxiety about the macro view that employ hedging categories such as having shorts as a portion of a portfolio, moving to alleged countercyclical investments (foreign exchanges), apportioning parts of portfolio to precious metals --- these efforts have diminished overall results (compared to a buy and hold, or a buy low, sell fair value approach). IMO. Up to now anyway -g-.

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