Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 330.48

+2.4%

Feb 9 3:59 PM EST

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To: roly who wrote (16851)	3/1/1998 10:45:00 PM
From: jtechkid	Read Replies (2) of 70976

i'm not negative just realistic-i love amat have made a fortune on the stock-great company in a very cyclical business -my point i'm tring to make is semi management really do a bad job in forecasting and we are in a downcycle that will not produce no growth this year -yes no growth-and not great numbers-people forget 1996-when amat got destroyed and traded at 12 pre split-i don't believe its that bad but what gets me concerned is asia melt down we are in the eye of the storm and if japan go deeper into trouble we should see a domino effect were europe will be the next -it could get ugly-at 3x sales in a downward cylce just seems no reason to bid the stock up and it will end ugly-if amat trades 2xsales its 22-as i have stated before in most down trends semi's bottom around 1x trailing sales-check 1996-2 years ago -i'm not negative but from some of you are not paying attention that we are not a short term bull mkt mkt for semi's earning will not be good for next 6-9 months-so when the stock goes to 20-28- you have seen the signals-don;t believe the market.

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