Ed Yourdon Replies to a Critic - also on electric utilities
'1998-03-02 12:00:02
There are approx 9,000 electric utility plants in the U.S., including 108 nuclear plants, and at the present time (Feb 25, 1998), NONE of them are Y2K compliant. None. Zero. Zip. Nada. Last survey that I saw indicated that one-third had not started any Y2K effort at all, one third were seriously behind schedule, and one-third were on-schedule. This is not an exaggeration; NONE of the nuclear plants are compliant, and the Nuclear Regulatory Agency (NRC) is currently drafting a letter to the plant operators to warn them of their vulnerability and liability. The Chairman of the SEC, Arthur Levitt, has drafted a letter to the non-nuclear agencies, also warning them of their Y2K exposure; this will probably go out in the next week or two. Most likely scenario: 20-30% of the utility plants will suffer at least sporadic Y2K problems on 1/1/2000, primarily with their embedded systems, including intermittent blackouts; and it's not at all beyond the realm of possibility that portions of the nation's power grid will be brought down for several hours, days, or weeks. Don't take my word for it; take a look at the web sites of two Y2K-oriented utility experts, Roleigh Martin
(http://ourworld.compuserve.com/homepages/roleigh_martin/)
and Rick Cowles
(http://www.euy2k.com/index.htm)
Both of them think the situation will be MUCH worse than what I've suggested.
<snip>
Sincerely, Ed Yourdon' |
