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Non-Tech : Radica Games (RADA)
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To: Gary105 who wrote (3166)3/2/1998 4:33:00 PM
From: Wayne  Read Replies (2) of 7111
 
Lets get realistic here.
Without dragging it out and based on notes from the CC as well
as personal interpretation, it does seem to me that we will indeed
have a better Q2 then Q1. Some of the highlights to consider in
Q2 are:
1) Due to CNY and restaffing/training used up a 2 week period,
10 weeks out of 12 is the reasonable number of weeks to use.
2) Current levels are at 380,000 units per week, up 27% from Q1.
Close to Q4 full capacity.
3) Current levels reflect some building against demand, not just
sales.
4) Possible usage of part of phase one construction in Q2. Ahead
of schedule and an indication of unit/week production
increases from now to end of Q.
5) Fewer common shares due to buy back.
6) April-May will have 4 VMS games, Soccer, and more OEM
games bringing in sales in addition to existing games. I suspect
some of the 380,000 units/week are in prep for this demand.

It would seem that a $200 million year is not out of the question
using a 30/70% ratio. Margins should pick up in second half as
usual as well. FWIW. it would seem $4.00 is doable on the year
but a more conservative view is the $3.00 no brainer and $4.00 as
the higher end until we see more numbers. I'll go in the middle
for now and look for $3.50. Put whatever P/E on it that works for
you. All with a grain of salt as always.
Wayne
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