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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)

QCOM 163.32

+2.3%

Nov 21 3:59 PM EST

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To: Gregg Powers who wrote (8968)	3/2/1998 8:52:00 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) of 152472

Well, well, well. So Qualcomm's licensing is pretty tight. Just as Microsoft didn't give me a license to use Windows 95 anywhere I like, limiting me to one computer, it seems that Qualcomm has got a similarly tight rein on their IPR. That is quite an important aspect. So the idea of Ericsson buying a license through the back door by buying a licensee might not work out. Presumably Ericsson could do that and get some benefit by pouring in capital and expanding the subsidiary's production. But they are obviously unable to do it via their Orbitel subsidiary which is making IS95 handsets for Globalstar. Presumably the Orbitel license limits them to producing Globalstar handsets in some way. Maybe Qualcomm's royalties are going to be a lot higher than I expected. This is very good news and I can see that you would have been very pleasantly surprised. Maybe Ericsson is much more cornered than I had thought. Well, not really cornered, since they can always just do what they have to and get their cheque book out, give Qualcomm 10% for all IS-95 IPR and get on with it. Or do you think 10% is way too cheap given that Ericsson would be able to simply step into a huge market which is already developed? I stick by my year old prediction of 3 years to overtake GSM. That is total new subscribers will be more cdmaOne than GSM in 2 years time. This will be in USA, as analog phones hit the bin and new subscribers enjoy the low prices of cdmaOne. In Japan for the same reasons. cdmaOne in Korea is already way ahead. China will take longer, but not much longer. Even in Europe there might be some chinks in the armour. Look how many handset suppliers there are now. Look how extensive the cdmaOne networks are becoming. Look how prices of minutes and handsets are falling. Look how good the cdmaOne voice quality is. And here comes wider band cdmaOne. With no Ericsson equivalent in sight. Vapourwear notwithstanding. As you say, Qualcomm has some good licenses! Well done Qualcomm. Thanks for that Gregg, Mqurice

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