Doc,
Well it was an interesting day... For us long termers, it is so funny to see all of the comments and interest all of sudden. As for the volume looks like many of the pump and dump gang took their profits today at what would appear to be a 100% gain. GOOD FOR THEM! I believe many bought on Friday at an average of 5.5 cents and when the priced arrived at 11 cents or so the selling started. Actually you could see some selling occur even before 11 cents.
Anyway back to the true fundamentals. There have been some real interesting post thats for sure and amazing rumors. However, for those that have been here for a long time, we have to keep this all into perspective. Especially for any of the new investors that may consider looking at this as a truly decent investment (that takes longer than a day or a week to be rich). Lets try to put this in perspective! IF you just bought in don't worry too much because the price isn't that bad for the risk IMO, if you have a bit of patience.
Per my source (which is LTGL), the last information provided was 50M outstanding, 22M in the float! LTGL has predicted that they will make 8-10M in revenue for this year. I am not sure they had planned for deals with Pep Boys and Radio Shack in these numbers or not. I also believe the EPS of 8 to 10 cents was prior to the dilution we have recently seen (14M to 50M outstanding). Unfortunately us long termers have already had to suffer through all that heartache..... Anyway, lets assume revenues of say 10M (since we have finally seen some progress for significant product exposure with Radio shack deal) for this calendar year, with a Net Income of about 2M-3M, lets say 2M to be conservative. So 2M/50M = .04 EPS with a reasonable PE ratio of 10 for such a non technical and no glamorous company would arrive at a fair value of 40 cents. So that represents an increase of 5 times the value of your original investment this year at the current price, which is plenty good enough for me. Remember I may be even a bit too pessimistic or conservative because I love surprises!!!
The risk, WHAT ARE THE RISK, that is important to all of us. IMO the risk are the following: (1) Will LTGL really make 10M in revenue (WHAT DO EACH OF YOU THINK?) and (2) Will they stop the dilution. These are not bad risk for a penny stock at this value. The recent announcement and others planned for the upcoming two weeks I am feeling much better about the chances of LTGL meeting the $10M estimate in Revenue, maybe even surprising me. Furthermore they are doing very well in some of the foreign markets (ask LTGL IR about it) and they have been making shipment to Winebego! I am feeling pretty good about their revenue estimates now.....
As for the dilution, I have been unable to find out how many shares are currently authorized but I am guessing 100M, hence worse case LTGL would reduce my gain for the year to 2.5 times its value, still not bad. I will be surprised if they will continue to DILUTE anymore (as they hint to me) but I am figuring it in for now, just so I can be pleasantly surprised!!
THIS IS THE REAL THING TO NOTE, THIS IS A PENNY STOCK THAT WE ALL KNOW HAS A PRODUCT, WE ALL KNOW IT IS LEGITIMATE AND WE ALL KNOW IT IS MAKING MONEY AND WE KNOW IT IS STILL CURRENTLY UNDERVALUED. LTGL has made a profit the last two quarters and the audited results (currently being undertaken) may even be better than previously noted because the revenues of 300 K for the 4th quarter ignored LOWGLOW's contribution. Did you guys even know that??? This will be one of the first stocks I have ever owned where the EPS will almost be as high as the stock price. Does a PE ratio of .08/.04 equal to 2 seem like fair value to you investors????? I DONT THINK SO.... I am holding and I am waiting for the true value we deserve.....
Relax, let the trading go on and things will shake out... I love to see everyone make money in any investment in any stock. I like LTGL, I have done my homework, I am looking for nothing more than what is due to us (as noted above). We are all due this because each investor has supported the company by investing in them!!! Good luck... I think I have given the true facts to the best of my knowledge with NO HYPE!!!
Truly Yours,
Eric |
