>>The up side has been artfully held down for obvious reasons.So thus the down will continue to fill the gap.The fact so much vol can be moved and the spread stay so thin indicates that manipulation is being acomplished.You can't raise the spread if you can't sell the stock.So you have a position of low confidence verses a position of increasing tender as the price moves up.The down side is bouyed by the positive while the up is capped by the limit of buyers.This is all obvious but when the chart comes out the limit it usually goes either straight up or straight down.I know we all believe it will go straight up.<<
Frankly, as I have expressed here before, I am puzzled, and it strengthens my view of TA applied to penny-stocks.
1/3 science, 1/3 art and 1/3 voodoo.
It is interesting that someone, (or various "someones"), is/are buying and accumulating, all these shares that are coming "on line". Who? And why? Are they strong longs? Or merely speculators/traders?
Dr. Alexander Elder says that markets rise when: a). Buyers are more aggressive than sellers, and b) when sellers are AFRAID and demand a premium.
Then, If the current buyers are mere "short term traders", it is correct to assume that the expected "rise" will be further "killed" by the supply of stock as the rise "meets" the expected "day trader profit". (On top of whatever stock is out there "waiting" to be converted from the different sources, as you indicated).
Now, if these buyers are "long term" investors, we will reach a point the supply will eventually dry up, then price will go up, (there are different resistance levels which will become more or less important depending on "net demand"/aggressiveness by buyers.
On the downside, we seem to have enough support that comes in quickly and the trading range has been very tight, the perception seems to change from quickly "oversold" to quickly "overbought"
What follows is my interpretation:
At this point the market has discounted all the "projections", "plans", "fluff news", and all the rest, twice we started solid runs, only to meet substantial selling pressure without further demand and the price collapsed...
What is next? Well... I am not sure, we may simply, "mark time" until such "solid" announcements will come and then we will really see the stamina and color of the rally, and to what levels this will take us.
The scenario could very well simply play out at a "slow motion rate" where the price simply goes up slowly, "back filling" whatever advances we make, that would depend on the progress the company makes.
For an explosive situation, we need likewise, explosive news. Then we will have truly aggressive buyers, (greed), they will meet the asked price and truly fearful sellers, (fear) they will feel that the "asked" price is not enough so they will go for more.
Let's not forget, as you appropriately point out, the dreaded sons of Satan (mm) will do their thing, but again, if the bulls are able to muster the explosive demand we need, the SOS will play along.
What I would not like to see is FTEL becoming RSYS, in which regardless of the company's good results, the stock gets manipulated.
The wild card at this point will be qualification for NASDAQ, I believe that would open up another sets of circumstances, but primarily, it will give the investor on FTEL a great deal of additional "confidence" to look at this company more "long term".
In the end I am puzzled, I think that there seems to be a perception that FTEL has to prove itself "beyond absolute doubt" to really take off, and only a big alliance, Nasdaq listing, or "big order" would "prove" the case.
Once again, mere speculation, without a peek at all the buy and sell orders available on a daily basis, as they are being placed, and most importantly, the motivations and interactions of the SOS, all we have to go by are the charts and the fundamentals.
At this point the chart seems (at least to me), a little confusing as to what direction is next. If you want to apply some theory, I would say that we are getting "compressed" and (given the fundamentals, as they are "expected" to play out), there may be a resolution of this compression, to the upside, possibly with lots of power.
ADX is rising from below 20, there seems to be a slight "uptrend", but seems to me that could change, we seem to "hesitate", no definition, great resistance at $4.865 which we need to break through and away in great form, so? What is next? Who knows!
Fundamentals seem to be falling in place slowly, it may be that the technology is complicated enough that people inside these corporate clients are taking their time making decisions, after all, as the news article mentioned that Internet Telephony is becoming more important than anticipated and so, the "IT" decision has all of a sudden become extremely important, that's good and that is bad, because decisions will take a little longer.
Here is where I believe that an alliance with a "biggie" becomes even more important. In making comparisons of the type that says, ABC company is not making money either, and look at the stock it is $20.00 or whatever... the alliance does count.
So at this point, I am grasping to find a solution for my "puzzle" with little success.
I have no idea if all of the above made things clearer, fuzzier or all of the contrary ...??
Patience, patience, patience... |
