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Technology Stocks : Large Bandwidth Information, Companies , OC3, ADSL, WAVE

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To: Kent C. who wrote (3)	3/2/1998 11:39:00 PM
From: Graham Dellaire	of 42

Kent, I think you have some good points I would like to add my own little bend on things. * xDSl being either ADSL, VDSL, RADSL etc.... 1. *xDSl is great for businesses already full of copper telephone and data lines (ether net). Ask yourself how many office building have cable outlets at every desk, nevermind on every floor! This means that most businesses will go xDSL, its a no brainer. 2. Home this is split into rural and city traffic. Rural homes will be farther apart and cost of cable if not already laid is high. Many people have opted for dishes rather than pay for cable hookup. So xDSL will be a good solution for these people. Not everyone has a TV but almost everyone has a phone! Now in cities with high density appartments and homes and cable in most of them, I think you will see more cable modems. 3. Which is the bigger market? Business or Private. Obviously in number of users private is bigger being split about 70/30 between high density users on cable modems and rural on xDSL. Now Business is higher margin! So xDSL sold to business will generate much more profit in the short term although less volume in the end. Private users are much more likely to upgrade often but busniness users are going upgrade fewer times but with larger expenditures. 4. Overall xDSL is cheaper to implement from scratch. Cable is notoriously expensive. 5. Whether xDSL or cable modems really make it will depend on who wins the communication war between Cable/Wireless companies and the Telecoms like the Baby Bells. ---- Problems Cable modems -rely on switching, no simultaneous two way traffic so bad for interactive games etc. -the more users you add to a cable line the worse the bandwidth and access xDSL -condition of alot of copper lines is so bad that you will not get more than 20-30% of suggested max performance -many competing strategies and flavours of xDSL which confuses investors and consumers. That is why we see good xDSL stocks flounder like PairGain. ----OVERALL---- The question will not be how fast we can connect to the Internet backbone, be it via cable modems or xDSL modems, but whether the backbone itself can handle the increase in traffic. SO if you really want to have a safe bet put money in stocks that make switches and fibre optics. REALLY huge spending is required in internet infrastructure to support higher bandwidth access. Graham Conclusion: There is room for cable and

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