Duane, thanks for your interest. To guess DPMI's future revenue, we have to estimate the number of mask and ASP. Your proposed "complexity index" should prove useful. I think more importantly we have to guess whether DPMI will penetrate the Japanese captive market.
After posting my question to Shane this morning, I received the 10K from DPMI. On p.7, it states
"The photomask market in Japan is estimated to have been approximately 50% of the worldwide market over the last five years. The Japanese market is predominantly served by captive Japanese suppliers and three significant local independent suppliers."
If DPMI can get 15% of the Japanese market, at current run rate, it will add on the order of 120 million to its revenue! ... According to DPMI's CEO (in an interview posted in this thread), DPMI currently has 1% of the Japanese market, and is investing long-term to gain share.
On p.8 of the 10K, it is also stated that
"The Company also believes that its ability to develop the most advanced photomasks provides a more cost effective alternative to the formation of captive operations, which require significant capital investments and operating costs to develop the requisite manufacturing expertise."
So, things look hopeful, particularly in view of the recent 0.08 news.
I remember reading an old post on this thread saying that DPMI folks internally talked about ultimately becoming a $300 stock. This is not impossible if DPMI takes a 37% share of the Japanese market. ... Very
attractive prospect, but how much should one pay for it?
Regards,
Tim |
