I find it curious to hear Bob say, "Most of the money has been made that is going to be made in this intermediate upturn". And then say, he expects a "consolidation" of prices, since the P/E ratio is so high. Why does that all add up to: Expect an Intermediate Downturn?
The most optimistic scenerio I can come up with is that the market will go sideways for a couple of quarters until the earnings catch up to the market. So, if you dollar cost average in a sideways market, you potentially will make a modest return on your money.
Bob did seemed relaxed during the Sunday show. Yet, maybe I am mistaking this "layback" mood as some deep contemplation going on in his head. Right now, everything is almost perfect in the economy and the U.S. as a whole. Where can it go from here? Well, considering the stock market is based on psychology and performance, I think we are on kind of "psychologically shaky ground". All this talk of early retirement, etc. The Boomers may have a change of heart soon, and give up the big bucks in the stock market, and put the profit into a safer place.
I think Bob really wants to issue a sell signal in his heart, but his timing model is telling him "Bull". I even noticed him saying, "if the Markettiming Model is correct" a couple of times. It is like his head is telling him "stay invested", but something inside is saying: "I sure hope other people are not feeling as satisfied with my earnings as I am, and will sell their equities and stick it all into Genny Mae's and kick back into "quiet retirement".
Greg |
