My comments are based on the published Phase III results coupled with advances by others in the oral treatment area. I think that there has been much progress for Type II and it will become increasingly difficult to capture market share as more oral agents come to market.
AMLN has not shown the Pramlintide is approval for Type II after they did, they would have to prove that it is useful to patients who already have several drugs from which to chose, and by the time Pramlintide is approved, patients will have more choices.
Yesterday, CNBC indicated that Rezulin sales were doing well, even after the liver enzyme scare. Several 2nd generation compounds are in trials and new approaches (rexinoids) are being developed. LLY just did a $200 million deal with LGND, which included several research programs, but the primary focus was Type II diabetes. I expect a similar deal to be signed by AGN, and a deal between JNJ and AGN would not surprise me.
The opportunity for Type I is there, but the market is smaller, and Pramlintide results were approvable, but not overwhelming. JNJ has seen the data and already had invested over $100 million. However, they elected to move on. I do not think that they are abandoning diabetes, but they have seen more data of others than we have, and they are cutting their losses.
I wasn't impressed with the ERGO data, but JNJ just did a deal with them. I don't think that AMLN has a long list of companies that are anxious to fill JNJ's shoes, which is one of the reasons that AMLN is accelerating filing and cutting staff.
They need to prove the critics wrong, and I'm not sure that it will be easy. Until something significant happens, I expect the price to drift south (after today). |
