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Strategies & Market Trends : Roger's 1998 Short Picks

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To: Oeconomicus who wrote (3949)3/3/1998 8:50:00 PM
From: tom pope  Read Replies (3) of 18691
 
I still don't get it.

<<demand among investors for long positions probably far exceeds supply, i.e. investors wanting short put positions.<<

A short put position is a bullish (long) position. Short a put and buy a call and you have the 100% equivalent of a long stock position.

>>In more active options, particularly index options, there is plenty of competitive arb activity and I would bet that you wouldn't find the same overpricing of puts<<

The OEX options do indeed show persistent "overpricing" of puts. (By overpricing I mean that MIV increases as you go down the strike curve - i.e., "volatility skewing. ) Puts are theoretically overpriced because longs are buying them for hedging purposes. If they were truly confident about the upward direction of the market they's sell puts to pick up the income.

Perhaps I'm missing a link in ur argument.
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