VVUS management is blaming the pending Viagra approval as the reason for VVUS' first quarter loss. Moreover, the FDA has stopped the Vivus Ad campaign for violation of their DTC guidelines concerning disclosure of risks.VVUS should be able to revise the campaign within a few weeks.
These actions made me remember one of my first posts concerning on VVUS posted on the Motley Fool VVUS Board on October 19,1997. At that time VVUS was at 29 7/8 and the Viagra NDA was just submitted to the FDA. (The post is listed below).
Current thoughts about VVUS: good product concept hampered by poor management and marketing.
Good investing!
BigKNY3
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Date: Sun, Oct 19, 1997 10:50 EDT
From: BigKNY3
Message-id:
sharikwa <<what you think of Vivus?>>
I do not have have a long position in VVUS or expect to have a position in the future. It does not fit the profile of companies that I like to own (too risky and volatile). I have also never shorted a stock or plan to!
Although I do not have extensive knowledge about VVUS, here are some general observations:
1. VVUS is currently a one-product company in a significant active therapeutic area. The ED market will dramatically change and grow during the next two years.
2. As a relatively brand new company, VVUS management is bound to make some big mistakes concerning forecasting, production, marketing and dealing with the FDA. These mistakes could have a significant adverse impact on VVUS.
3. Major VVUS posters have absolutely no knowledge of the pharmaceutical industry or pharmaceutical marketing and are relying on their price trend charts to determine the future of MUSE and VVUS. A big mistake!! Even worse, some posters spread misinformation about competition to suit their current positions. In the end, facts, experience, and patient preference (not misinformation) will win out in the marketplace.
4. VVUS seems to be a magnet for momentum investors. Just check out the Silicon Investor VIVUS Board for further evidence. As a result, short-term 20%-50% swings (up and down) can be expected. If you hit the timing right, there is an opportunity to make money. But, you also need to know when to get out. This is not a buy and hold stock!
5. Oral medications should be introduced in the ED market in 1998. Their impact on MUSE is unknown. Moreover, news about the oral drugs will probably have an adverse effect on VVUS. VVUS is down 15% since the announcement of Viagra's NDA submission on September 29th even with a one day spurt on 9/30/97..
VVUS management is putting on a happy face about an expanding market. But, in reality, nobody knows what will happen until the oral products are available. Regardless, this is a major factor for VVUS that brings significant additional risk ...and possible opportunity.
Best of luck to all VVUS investors,
BigKNY3 |
