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Non-Tech : Any info about Iomega (IOM)?

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To: Michael Rick who wrote (8831)10/16/1996 2:42:00 AM
From: Robert Skinner   of 58324
 
Michael:

I'm still a strong bliver in IOMG. But the run up to 27 was a obvious short squize.
I knew after the squize the stock would drop fast. When I saw the stock start to drop I unloaded all my holdings at 26. If the stock stayed at the lows before the squize I would have stayed in.
There are a few points that stay in my mind. When the earnings downgrade was announced the stock droped about 1/8 pt closing around 15. This point was the bottom. Then the squize drove the price up higher.
The price of the stock today is still a result of that squize. Now if I could have had the insight to buy the stock back at 21 I would have held past earnings. But now with the stock at 24 1/4 I do not see numbers or conferance call supporting the stock at this price. I expect the stock to run up a a little more before the report comes out. Then were looking at the report and a PE around high 80s or low 90s. Rember the last report IOMG beat earnings by %10 and the challanging Q3 statement.
So now were going into Q3 with earnings downgraded. I think at the very best this Q will get .11 at the worst .04. Ok Revanews of someplace bewteen 250 and 300K. So the numbers by there self don't support the PE. But there is still the IOMG story. I don't need to talk about that. I think people are hoping for a great conferance call. I belive K.E. is a fine CEO and doing a great Job. But I don't think he will give the kind of statements people want. Instead I think he will stick to the plan of lowering the cost of Zip. He may say something about this in connection with the intell, Texas inst and Motarola deal. But I do not here him saying that the cost of making Zip will be reduiced. Only that he wants to lower the cost of selling Zip.
At this point I see people gitting out of the stock. I base some of my thoughts on the insider selling before Q3 report.
Also over the last few weeks I heard CNBC saying storage stocks and computer add on's are going to do well. For me that is a sure sign to sell. CNBC to me is a contrary indictor.

To be honest with you I kind of hope i'm wrong. I really don't like the shorts. Anyway i'm going to brake a few of my own rules. I'm going to buy put options. (I can't bring myself to short this stock to big of a risk) But the last time I checked OCT 22 1/2 puts they were about 3/8. So ill take a small position 10 contracts. and have my finger on the button friday. I will also be ready to buy the stock in quanty if my reasons for prove wrong for putting it.

I think the relity for me is Q2 I thought would be the real killer quarter. Well I was wrong and now that im back in large profits I am much more cautious maby a little scared. Q2 cost me $68K. Now I would rather not get as much profit from letting some points go by than to get hammared on the down side. Maybe i'm just gitting old and lost some of my guts.

In any case I will be back in this stock but not tell some of the risk is gone. This Q has to much risk for me to ride at these prices.

Good luck to you longs.

Dam never thought I would hate a good short squize.
It got me out of the stock.

Good luck to you longs.
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