Between you and Electric, I'm getting headaches. It is too early for this technical stuff.
Besides, I had too much fun last night so these two posts will likely be even more incoherent than usual.
1. I agree that it is a pivotal day/week, if the rallies cannot be broken soon it may just continue upward for quite some time. The late comeback in the SPX and OEX was created to some extent (IMO) by traders who thought that yesterday was the day to break the market and short-covering (myself included, sorry to say) pushed the SP8H and OEX to record high closes. Another day like that and we could see the SP8H (and SPX) push up another 10 or 15 points before this is over. Plus, the "Buy The Dips" crowd is still unabashed.
2. The strong DJIA, I believe, is masking distribution. Thus the weaker Nasdaq.
3. Asia, as has been historically the case vis-a-vis the perception of it by Americans, and it's problems will impact US markets to the degree that people believe how seriously it shall affect the U.S.
Unfortunately, if the markets do not take Asian problems as a serious threat to the U.S. then we may get a more restrictive Fed downstream.
4. The A/D has been positive 25 out of the last 28 days. Enough already.
5. The DJIA has been positive 5 straight days, Record Closes 5 straight days.
6. Bonds. Theoretically oversold, and migration to the June contract should create some fireworks I would think. This should probably help stocks, at least for a short while.
7. Another key for the week is that it is Unemployment Numbers/Non-Farm Payroll reporting....generally a potentially explosive week.
8. XOI for the time being, as well as the Bank sector, is benefiting from the distribution from the NDX and SOX. How long this goes on is unclear, but a strong Bank sector aids the overall market.
Even though I think the sucker has to trade off, I would hesitate until I had a clue as to the day's finish. I would be leary of a likely last hour rally if the market is selling off mid-day. That would probably be the time to buy the puts, if the market does not look like it's going for another record close. |
