Paul, I saw Jimmy Rodgers on CNBC about three months ago. It
was about the time that Andy Chen was saying that Intel was going
into the 50s or something like that. At the time, I thought that
Andy was real wrong, but I was a little startled to hear Jimmy
Rodgers say that he was shorting Intel big time. I even posted
to this thread that although I thought that Andy was wrong, he
had some respectable company in Jimmy Rodgers. I'm not absolutely
sure about the date but it was around three months ago.
My problem with Elaine Garzarelli is that she has really had a
fairly poor record since her call on the crash of 87. She ran
a bad mutual fund and she left her firm because of the fund not
doing well. From time to time there are people who can make
pronouncements and have people follow them. Joe Granville comes
to mind. Elaine would appear to be in that camp. I would have
no trouble with her predictions if she had a better batting
average. In industry I have observed a phenomenon called
failing up. Someone is given substantial authority at one
organization and fails bigtime. They leave, but move on to
an even more influential position at another organization.
Then they repeat the process. Some become CEOs.
As for Elaine, in 1987 the market was in an insane overheated
state. In March of that year (way too early) I exited the
market. I missed the runup to Dow 2700, but I also missed the
decline. Also, I got back in WAY too late, so it didn't do me
any real good, frankly. However, Elaine has made a career on
a call that any rational observer could see. The market was
way overheated and was due for a meltdown. I think when Elaine
first made this latest call the Dow was near 5400. she may be
right eventually, but she is certainly not dead on on timing.
Burt |
