Hi Robert,
Redeployment and retraining are sometimes much larger expenses than
one would think, sometimes the biggest cost. 3 Years from now, I believe that MSFT is beyond the 2 year part of the agreement but
still under the 5 year. Therefore, from my understanding, CTXS will have an exclusive on non-Win95, non-WinNT still in 3 years(basically
the whole UNIX market and plus new ideas such as OS in cable-tv box,
etc.).
As for after two years, Microsoft can broaden its competition with CTXS by offering load-balancing, etc. for *Windows* clients. While
this is possible, it would be uncharacteristic of MSFT. As an
example, the NT4 server CD comes with 3rd party software to
work with RAS(Remote Networking), Microsoft's current remote
access product. So, in this case, why didn't MSFT just add
the 3rd party enhancements to RAS and take the money and business
away from the 3rd party? Why promote the 3rd party(there isn't
alot of other 3rd party software on CD)?
I think because there isn't a real incentive. MSFT is going to
keep the price of NT4 around where it's at. It's a loss-leader.
Which, brings me to my next point... NT5 is coming in 2 versions,
standard and enterprise. Standard for small office. Enterprise
is for larger companies and will include alot of extra stuff,
including Hydra. Therefore, MSFT is bundling Hydra - it's
probably close to free. Just like Internet Explorer.
In other words, MSFT is out to protect itself from competitors
like Sun, Oracle and IBM because they pose as serious threat.
Those that think that MSFT just wants to eat CTXS cake have
to really think about it. Historically, MSFT has made moves
to protect itself. They built E-mail into OS because it was
strategic. Any 3rd party that wants to come to MSFT camp
and support Exchange is welcome, as long as they remain in MSFT
camp. CTXS is actually a stealth invader of other camps by
giving the non-windows users(Sun, etc) access to MSFT's software
which is just another way for MSFT to penetrate the enemy.
Now, in all this time period, 2-5 years, CTXS is the only 3rd
party that has access to Hydra. Not only did they write the
program, they have the unlocking key to work with it. In other
words, other 3rd parties can't get in. CTXS is in the unique
position, has the cash and 2-5 years to move ahead of any would-be
competitors( and that's, IMHO, not MSFT).
Oh yeah. I figured a way that anyone can get some details on
MSFT deal. Call investor relations. While they may not give
copy of contract, I believe that they are obligated to disclose
that answers to any direct questions.
Oh yeah, yeah. You asked if there was anything to stop MSFT, etc.
from competing in 3 years. Well, the world doesn't work that
way. Anyone can compete with anyone the want to. So, anyone
could have written a program all along to compete with Winframe
if they wanted to. CTXS took that lead, got the cash, had the
talent. In a practical sense, currently the only real
potential competitors for Windows Terminal are MSFT and CTXS.
And there are a few opposing views:
1) MSFT is so damn greedy that they don't want anyone to survive
(dark empire)
2) MSFT is concerned that many would like to eat its lunch and
they are just trying to protect themselves and maintain and
and enhance their position as top-dog.
-N |
