<< The marketplace is going to be taken over by big players
very soon >>
Yes, that is the conventional wisdom, but let me counter that with some arguments.
(1) The same thing was said of Wal-Mart, Home Depot, and Microsoft
in the beginning. (nobody can unseat IBM! ha ha ha!). The same
thing could be said for any software or internet company.
(2) The e-com marketplace is growing at more than 200% per year.
There will be room for a few players.
(3) You absolutely CANNOT discount the significance of the brand
name recognition of AMAZON.COM. 95% don't know who Barnes&Noble
is, and 99.999% don't know what that German companies name is.
THEY ARE LATE TO THE PARTY! The first gets the spoils.
(4) I'll state it again, AMAZON's name recognition is what is
important. Who cares what the heck they sell. With name
recognition like they have (AND with the penetration they have
on the web, just look at the hit rates... WOW!) What's to stop
them from selling other stuff once they have the audience??
All it would take is some announcement that they are branching
in other areas and the shorts will, ahh, drop something in their
shorts.
(5) Again, READ the press release that went out with the last earnings
statement. Look at the site hit rates... Look at the customer
base they are building...Look at the potential market.
(6) As you well know, the investment to enter the e-com market is
VERY, VERY large. Any company who tries to enter will fail
without name recognition. Look at AMZN's cash bleeding. Anyone
else who enters this market will endure the same problems.
You need some vision! The person who compared AMZN to some oil
company REALLY cracked me up. Understanding the SIZE and potential
of a market is CRITICAL when evaluating an individual stock. The
internet is here to stay, and will growth exponentially. e-com
is exploding.. How can this get compared to the oil market??
kp |
