I should have done this before, but I did take a closer look. Interest will be higher for the March quarter, as will the number of shares outstanding.
My read: interest will be about $6.575 million; diluted shares will be about 20,684,000. I did a revenue estimate (based on Sept. quarter rates, not the higher Dec. quarter rates, and $13,500 for the new equipment; also on roughly Sept. quarter utilization) and came up with about $52 million in revenue. I only used 60% gross margins (vs. 67% in the last two quarters), same tax rate, and guesstimated other costs based on last two quarters. Came up with 53 cents/share as net profit.
I view this as a pretty conservative estimate. I think there's only 1 place where I may be high, and that is the utilization of the new equipment. I may be low on gross margin (as indicated above), and on the actual rates. Every additional $318,215 in gross margin or increased revenue works out to an additional penny/share.
FYI, First Call high estimate is 61 cents, the low is 41 cents, the average is 45 cents, but the median is 42 cents, so most of the estimates are on the low end.
KJ |
