Mark,
I did my own analysis of the DISH numbers and posted it here a few weeks back. This looked at debt structure, subscriber revenue and operating costs, subscriber acquisition costs, etc. I encourage you to carefully scrutenize them and bring up any questions you might have. I used this info to predict a possible "turn-around" point (# of subscribers it will take for this thing to make money, given certain assumptions). One conclusion is that the company, due to restrictions it accepted in its last bond sale, MUST sell more of its approved stock in order to raise the cash needed to grow subscribers to levels that will allow it to pay down debt. Don't get me wrong, I am long on this stock (from 15), it is just that there are several things that must go right. If things go wrong, look for DISH to seek a buyer (but given the CEO's reputation, this could get more complicated). The thing I am watching more than anything else is subscriber growth.
As for the WSJ article, I do not dispute any of your points except this: I think it should make all of us a little more keen to what is going on in Washington. Ergen's comments about the importance of local channels to DISH may be grandstanding, or it may be the facts of life - any comments.
Regards, John
P.S. - If you are interested in the article I can mail a copy via snail-mail if you would like. Or maybe someone with an online WSJ subscription could post it. |
