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Gold/Mining/Energy : American Eco (ECGOF, ECX on Toronto exchange)

ECX 1.645

-4.4%

Jan 2 9:30 AM EST

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To: MARK BARGER who wrote (1898)	3/4/1998 3:16:00 PM
From: Charles A. King	Read Replies (1) of 2841

All predictions for El Nino effects have it mitigating and disappearing by year's end. nic.fb4.noaa.gov There could be a La Nina effect of colder than normal weather to follow. The Asian crisis has diminished projected demand, but it still requires a certain amount to maintain current needs. Iranian officials have been talking to Saudi Arabian officials to discuss the world price of oil. Saudi Arabia has been pumping oil at a rate which may be close to their capacity. While OPEC produces about 28 million barrels a day of the estimated 63 million b/d pumped in the world, the fact that Iran is talking to Saudi Arabia is an indication of the concern about oil prices. Saudi Arabia may be deliberately overproducing to try to discourage marginal energy producers from staying in the business. Iraq had voluntarily stopped shipping oil officially permitted by the UN for about a month to try to gain sympathy for their people. The UN greatly increased their permitted level which I assume is now flooding onto the world market. But Iraq had always exported oil unofficially through Iranian waters as well as through Jordan. Iraq's ability to produce oil is hurt by the poor condition of their equipment. Iraq is vitally interested in maintaining its military capacity. Gasoline and diesel are hovering around 19 cents a gallon lower than normal. That isn't likely to continue too much longer as the effects of El Nino subside. It can easily be seen that Eco's stock could appreciate considerably this year. Charles

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