Stock Puppy and All,
Another look at the 9/30/96 10KSG numbers might be worthwhile. Let's assume that all the 1996 revenue ($723,964) was derived from OCGT's PrimeCare Software. By the company's own numbers OCGT gets $1.50 per usage. So $723,964 translates into 482,643 usages. ONE physician is assumed (by OCGT) to see 500 patients a month and so 6000 usages a year. Hence 80 physicians making full use of the software could generate all the revenue in 1996.
OCGT's recent marketing deals exposes their software to at least 7500 physcians. If 10% make full use of the software, we have 830(=750+80), not 80, physicians using the software. That's $7.5 million in revenue for 1997, or .35 a share (revenue, not profit). If 20% use it, then the resulting $15 million in revenue might actually generate a profit. Also my broker claims there is another announcement in the works next month.
A negative note: the 10KSG report under Liquidity and Capital Resources contains the statement "The Company's auditors have included an explanatory paragraph regarding the ability of the Company to continue as a 'going concern'". Maybe they have to generate significant revenues soon!
I think your repeated focus on numbers is now significant. OCGT must generate rapidly improving numbers for the stock price to rise--and the net has to enter positive territory. If we get more and more announcements but no dramatically improved bottom line, this stock may have problems holding 1.50. In fact this morning with volume about 55,000 at 12:30 the stock reached 1.3125.
I guess my optimism is not as high as yours! |
