You're dead right. Friday 5/30/97, just before the opening bell, Intel warned revenues would be off 5-10% and gross margins "softer".. Intel eventually turned in a 2Q EPS of 0.92, vs the January estimates of 1.00 and the revised estimates (post warning) of 0.90. The present situation is much worse, run the numbers through and you get 0.68 to 0.73 EPS, vs current estimates of 0.93, a 22% - 27% shortfall. Ouch!!
The effect last May was that the DOW dropped 90 and the NASDAQ 50 in the first 30 minutes of trading, until the reassuring statements from CPQ and DELL right after the opening turned the markets around, and the box makers actually ended up for the day. INTC shed 23 points from 164 (Thursday close) to 141 before recovering to close only 12 points down at 152.
Unless CPQ, DELL, IBM or someone comes out with some calming statements before the opening (and I haven't seen anything yet, still looking), tomorrow will be a bloodbath for all tech stocks (everything initially got hit at least 10% last May). Expect INTC to hit the low 60's on panic selling before it turns around, and expect all box makers to get hit hard too (though CPQ is so beaten down it's hard to see it going much lower). On the bright side, there's bound to be some incredible buying bargains if you have any spare cash or margin lying around!
Ah well, if we must invest in tech stocks, we have to expect the roller coaster from time to time.
Good luck to all.
David T. |
