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Technology Stocks : Novell (NOVL) dirt cheap, good buy?

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To: Marc Newman who wrote (20698)3/5/1998 5:17:00 AM
From: Don Earl  Read Replies (2) of 42771
 
Hi Marc,

I tend to worry when anyone starts to think of anything I say as investment advise. I express my opinions freely mainly because it pleases me to do so. I strongly advise anyone to ALWAYS, ALWAYS, ALWAYS do their own research and NEVER, NEVER, NEVER take anything ANYONE says (including me) at face value without checking your own sources.

FWIW the last time I looked the Heng Seng was down 550 points and the Nikkei was down about 250. The thing that has made me the most nervous about this market is the way so much of the short money has been squeezed out of it. A healthy market has to have a fair amount of short money in it to hold the prices up when it starts to go south. Short covering saved the day in October and probably to a large extent kicked off the rally in January. If INTC is the first domino to fall that sets off a wide spread panic, there won't be enough short covering to hold it up and not enough up ticks to make an entry point for potential short interests.

Technically both NOVL and YHOO have both broken out at key resistance points. Very dangerous shorts in a healthy market. In a down market even the most optimistic forward looking projections hardly justify a fraction of the price, IMO. Although I belive that could be said for a whole bunch of companies at current levels. The reasoning behind paying NOW, what a stock MIGHT be worth SOMEDAY is a little hard for me to understand. I sure wouldn't want to buy groceries at 1999/2000 prices.

It looks like world markets are starting to wobble with the wobble in the DOW, which will probably make the DOW wobble a little harder. This whole thing could be global by Friday. Oil down, gold down, blow off top and all the stuff that those nasty old bears Paul and Dwight wasted precious bandwidth on, with all their gloomy (off topic) discussions.

Regards,

Don
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