Bradley, let's review your " competitors list " ; I modified it slightly:
CISCO-Alcatel - Stratacom
NN -Siemens- COMS
Nortel- Fore- CS- SHIVA
Lucent- ASND- BAY
ERICY? maybe asnd and others
Nokia (Ipsilon already) and more?
What I see is this:
a) a crowded LAN field.
b)most expertise is in LAN.
c)ALL the above [ CISCO, NT, LU, in item b) above ] are trying to get into WAN/ATMs through BUYING and " SYNERGISM" gg [,*%^#!!@&^ ] OF LOWER END WANS (Strata, Casc, Fore ,Shiva , ALA ), a DUBIOUS proposition at best:.If you didn't have the technology before, it 's dubious that they'll be able to catch to NN in time for the big upcoming Telecom buys.
d) NN on the other hand is trying to get into LAN with COMS: a much easier proposition I think considering the available expertise out there.
NN is the BIG ATM/WAN Kahuna with 10000 corp customers, 110 countries, 200 Telcos: un almost insurmountable wall.
e) ultimately it is the WAN backbone that will propel NN.
The telecoms/ISPs are starting to explode: Ultimately when you carry all this heavy duty traffic of voice-video-data in the Telco backbone, what the Telcos are looking for most is, reliability; clear connections; no dropped signals; fast connections; upgradable equipment so as to prevent throwing out the old.
NN clearly stands out. 1999 PE is 24. 5 year range ( 14- 170 ). Merrill
has them growing at 25% however considering that their ATM in Q3 where growing at 150% and that they are going into all ATMs I wonder if the growth rate shouldn't be higher.
Volume low today in this " bad day ", gg. NN holding. Up last half hour or tomorrow? Tomorrow the employment data I think are coming out. If they are not bad, market will regain it's previous levels in the next 2 weeks.
TA
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